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Superforecasting describes how we live in a probabilistic and uncertain world, but we seek out certainty and absolutes in our everyday lives. Using examples across Fantasy Football, Inverse Jim Cramer, Inflation, and Chipotle’s future growth, we discuss how hard it is to predict the future, and how we are often flawed in our prediction updating abilities. Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected → we must constantly update our beliefs based on new information and use base rates, devil’s advocates, and premortems to fight off our natural confirmation & identity biases.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner
